The Economy and Latin America

The going gets tougher
Sustaining recent social progress may require a squeeze on the richMar 1st 2014 | From the print edition

FOR Latin Americans, the past dozen years have been remarkable. The region has seen a magical combination of faster economic growth, falling poverty and declining income inequality. Is this unprecedented period of progress over?

Growth has certainly slowed, to below 3% in the past two years compared with an annual average of 5% in 2003-08. But poverty continues to fall. In a report* released this week, the World Bank reckons that in 2012 only a quarter of Latin Americans were “poor”, a category defined as those living on less than $4 a day at purchasing-power parity (see chart). The largest social group in the region is made up of those whom the bank defines as “vulnerable” to sinking back into poverty. But they are set to be surpassed in size by the middle class sometime in the next three years. That is significant, not least because the bank uses a more realistic definition of the middle class (a daily income of $10-50) than those often bandied about in the region.
In this section
Towards the brink
Shackling Shorty
Unarmed and dangerous
The going gets tougher
Related topics
Economic Inequality
Economic development

As growth slows, however, so will the pace of the fall in poverty. The bank expects the annual decline in the number of poor to have dropped to only 0.8 percentage points since 2012, from 1.8 points in 2003-12. It also thinks the fall in income inequality has come to an end. The region’s Gini coefficient—a standard measure where zero means that income is equally shared and one means one person takes it all—fell from 0.57 in 2000 to 0.52 in 2010, but the bank reckons it has more or less been stuck there since. This still leaves Latin America as the world’s most unequal region, along with sub-Saharan Africa.

That assessment may be a bit pessimistic. The bank pools data from 17 countries in the region to come up with averages (it excludes Venezuela, whose statistics are not verifiable by outsiders). Nora Lustig, an economist at Tulane University in New Orleans, has crunched the household-survey numbers for individual countries. She thinks the fall in income inequality is continuing in many countries, and has accelerated in Argentina, Bolivia and Ecuador—though not in Mexico, where it seems to have reversed in 2010. But she, too, thinks there is a risk of the fall in inequality petering out.

Government cash-transfer programmes to the poor, and demographic changes—a smaller proportion of dependents and more women going out to work—have played a role in reducing inequality. But the big change has been in wages: unlike in many developed countries, differentials between higher and lower earners have fallen in Latin America. The expansion in education, especially secondary schooling, has reduced the premium this previously attracted in the labour market. In some countries big rises in the minimum wage have also helped.

Such gains may have largely run their course. The poor quality of the region’s public schools risks holding back the expansion of higher education (together with slow economic growth, that seems to be the problem in Mexico, says Ms Lustig). Growing fiscal constraints and competitiveness problems mean the scope for rises in the minimum wage is limited.

So what can governments do to keep progress going? The most important answer is to undertake the structural reforms required to boost economic growth as the commodity boom wanes: 70% of the fall in poverty in 2003-12 was due to a rise in incomes from employment, not from social programmes, according to the bank. This message will be reinforced by a likely rise in poverty in Venezuela and Argentina, whose economies are suffering stagflation after years of handouts.

Keeping the fall in inequality going will require a crusade to improve the quality of education—which is easier said than done. Many governments need to spend more on health and education, especially for brown, black and rural Latin Americans, whose opportunities continue to lag behind. That means raising taxes (see page 80). But since most countries rely excessively on consumption taxes, this in turn risks aggravating inequality rather than reducing it.

Data on income from capital are skimpy. But because taxes on property, inheritance and capital gains are all low to non-existent, it is clear that, compared with their peers elsewhere and their salaried fellow-countrymen, rich Latin Americans pay less than their fair share of taxes. Keeping the fall in poverty and inequality going may require a squeeze on the rich—but done cleverly, so as not to deter growth-enhancing investments.

* “Social Gains in the Balance: A Fiscal Policy Challenge for Latin America and the Caribbean”, February 2014

From the print edition: The Americas


Handbook of Latin American Studies

Journal of Latin American Studies (with full text from 1997 to present, electronically from Cambridge Press:

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Revolution, revolutionaries groups and social movements

The Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (CONAIE)

Zapatista Related Websites

Writings of Sub-commander Marcos

A PLACE CALLED CHIAPAS, dir. Nettie Wild (1998)

REVOLUTION AND REVOLUTIONARIES GROUP Silvio Rodriguez on the Special Period (1990’s)


Like coins
Disillusionment jingles its theme
With a red mouth
And big droopy breasts
Smoking light tobacco
And exhaling alcohol
The owner of the bed embroidered
In underwear.
What frenzy in interrogation
What suicide in investigating
A brilliant fashion show

It opened a business
Reviving leisure

Like tourism
It invented the abyss
It touched the diamond
And turned it to coal
And it planted a good-for-nothing
In the administration.


To keep my icon from being smashed,
To save myself among the few and the odd ones,
To grant me a space in their Parnassus,
To give me a little corner in their altars,
they come to invite me to repent,
they come to invite me not to lose out,
they come to invite me to undefine myself,
they come to invite me to so much bullshit.
I can’t say what the future is,
I’ve always been what I’ve been

Only God, up there , is divine.
I will die just as I’ve lived.

I want to keep on betting on the lost cause,
I want to be with the left hand rather than right,
I want to make a Congress of the united,
I want to pray deeply an “our son .”

They’ll say that craziness has gone out of fashion, They ‘ll say that people are evil and don’t
deserve it, but I’ll leave with my mischievous dreams
(perhaps multiplying bread and fish).

I can’t say what the future is, I’ve always been what I’ve been, Only God, up there, is divine.
I will die just as I’ve lived.

They say that I’ll be dragged over the rocks when the Revolution comes crashing down, that they’ll
smash my hands and my mouth, that they’ll tear out my eyes and my tongue.
It may well be that I’m the child of foolishness, the foolishness of what today seems foolish: the
foolishness of accepting one’s enemy,
the foolishness of living without a price.
I can’t say what the future is, I’ve always been what I’ve been, Only God, up there , is divine.

I will die just as I’ve lived.


1arrive at the club of the fifty-year-olds (1950s)
and one hand brings the bill

The sum (addition) calls my attention from back to my cradle
Every fire, every underta king [with the implication of something you really
want to do]

comes with a price tag next to it
in spite of what has been paid .
I wonder what kind of business this is
in which even desire becomes an object of consumption
what will I do when the sun sends its bill?
But I keep turning my face to the east
and order another breakfast [using an Anglicism; that is, the word order isn’t
really used like that in Spanish]
in spite of the cost of love.

Let debts and inflation come,
rous, fines, recessions.

Let the pickpocket try to grab
the taste of my bolero.

Whoever the boss may be
Let him charge me diligently
(that cruel hand will find out
when I send him my bill).


The night flowers of Fifth Avenue open
For those poor gentlemen who go to the hotel

Flowers that break in the darkness
Flowers of winks of complicity

Flowers whistling suicides
Flowers with a fatal aroma

What gardener has sown our Fifth Avenue
With such a precise nocturnal variety

What is their species, what is their country

What fancy fertilizer nourished their root
Giving them a wild tone

Where could their womb be?
Flowers that go through forbidden doors

Flowers that know what I’ll never know
Flowers that string their dream of life

In garlands without faith
Flowers of sheets with eyes

Disposable flowers
Doorbells of desire
Flowers eating the leftovers of love

They sprout, they bounce, they explode on our Fifth Avenue
They are pulled up and depart with swift air

They say that a flower’s job is hard
When its petals wither in the sun

Pale nocturnal flowers
Flowers of disillusionment.



Group Members:



To watch The Motorcycle Diaries go to:

Che Guevara in the U.N. (1964)





Takeovers in Argentina (The Take, dir. Avi Lewis and Naomi Klein)


Group Members:


Culture and Art: Popular Culture/Literature


· Benito Martin (Argentina)

· Frida Calo

· Diego Rivera

· Muralists




· Son

· Salsa

· Somba

· Bossanova

· Tropicalia

· Rock



· Gabriel Garcia Marquez

· Pablo Neruda

· Gabriela Mistral

· Octavio Paz


· New Latin American Cinema